|
Feb 12, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
"The latest jobs report and revisions suggest that may be starting to pick up, with private payrolls posting the best numbers in more than year." "gently pushes the odds in favor of incomes rising toward spending ahead." "‘26 will bring a more positive environment." Small-cap companies are often more domestically focused and highly sensitive to the health of the US economy and its labor market. A strengthening US economy, driven by job growth and rising incomes, provides a strong tailwind for small-cap earnings and valuations. LONG Small-Cap US Equities (e.g., IWM ETF for Russell 2000) on the back of an improving domestic economic outlook and labor market strength. Economic recovery falters; higher interest rates disproportionately impact smaller, often more leveraged, companies; broader market downturn. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Will a Pickup in Jobs Keep Spending Going?...
|
|
Feb 12, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
"The latest jobs report and revisions suggest that may be starting to pick up, with private payrolls posting the best numbers in more than year." "In an environment of such low labor supply... it won’t take much to put a positive squeeze on labor." "gently pushes the odds in favor of incomes rising toward spending ahead." A strengthening labor market, potential for wage growth, and rising incomes imply a more robust economy and potential inflationary pressures. This would likely lead to a more hawkish Federal Reserve or delayed rate cuts, pushing interest rates higher and negatively impacting fixed income assets. SHORT US Treasuries (e.g., via a TBT ETF or directly shorting bond futures) on expectations of a stronger economy and potential inflationary pressures leading to higher interest rates. Labor market strength proves temporary; wage growth remains subdued; the Fed adopts a more dovish stance than expected; an unforeseen economic downturn. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Will a Pickup in Jobs Keep Spending Going?...
|
|
Feb 12, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
"increasing corporate capex will be enough to finally get hiring and wage growth going again." "Private sector hiring was particularly robust." Increased corporate capital expenditure (capex) and robust private sector hiring are indicators of business expansion and investment. Companies within the industrial sector, which provide equipment, services, and infrastructure for other businesses, are direct beneficiaries of this trend. LONG Industrials sector (e.g., XLI ETF) due to anticipated increases in corporate capex and strong private sector hiring signaling broader business expansion. Corporate capex growth slows or reverses; overall economic growth falters; geopolitical events disrupt investment plans or supply chains. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Will a Pickup in Jobs Keep Spending Going?...
|
|
Feb 12, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
"Household spending remains pretty strong while income growth has fallen. ... The latest data pushes the odds that we land on the positive side of that knife’s edge... gently pushes the odds in favor of incomes rising toward spending ahead." If incomes rise to meet strong household spending, consumers will have greater disposable income, directly benefiting companies in the consumer discretionary sector. LONG Consumer Discretionary sector (e.g., XLY ETF) on the expectation of rising nominal incomes supporting continued strong household demand. Incomes fail to rise or household spending unexpectedly contracts; broader economic slowdown; shifts in consumer sentiment. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Will a Pickup in Jobs Keep Spending Going?...
|
|
Feb 11, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
After a period of significant volatility and retail-driven froth, short-term flows into the gold market have normalized. Indicators such as ETF flows, Chinese premium, futures positioning, and options volatility have returned to subdued or normal levels, and the market appears to have sustainably bottomed. The removal of speculative excesses, combined with persistent favorable long-term structural and policy dynamics, creates an "all clear" signal for investors to re-enter the gold market, anticipating a more sustainable and gentle upward trend. Go long gold, as the market has cleared its recent speculative froth, and underlying fundamentals are now supported by normalized short-term flows, suggesting a stable appreciation for investors with a medium to long-term horizon. A sudden resurgence of unsustainable speculative interest leading to another sharp correction; unexpected shifts in global monetary or fiscal policy that undermine gold's appeal; a significant strengthening of the US dollar or a sharp rise in real interest rates. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
All Clear To Dive Back Into Gold...
|
|
Feb 10, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
"It seems the asset markets are driving the real economy these days, not the other way around." This leads to a "jobless expansion favoring companies fed by an ongoing flow of dissaving." If asset markets are driving the real economy, continued strength in asset values (equities) can create a positive feedback loop, encouraging further dissaving and consumption. This environment is generally supportive of broad market indices and growth-oriented companies that benefit from sustained demand and wealth effects. Long broad market ETFs (like SPY) or growth-focused ETFs (like QQQ) to benefit from the positive feedback loop where asset markets drive the real economy, supported by ongoing household dissaving. A significant correction in equity markets would directly undermine the "asset markets driving the real economy" thesis. Unexpectedly aggressive Fed tightening due to persistent inflation could also dampen market sentiment. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Dissaving Drives Decent Demand...
|
|
Feb 10, 2026
|
|
WATCH
|
"car sales were a notable weak spot in Jan (aligning with the JPM data above)." "most of the weakness we have seen Jan is related to a very weak autos print." The author suggests "relatively extreme cold, snow played an important role." The auto sector showed specific weakness in January, potentially due to temporary factors like weather. While the broader consumer is strong, this specific segment experienced a notable slowdown. Watch the auto sector for signs of recovery in February/March, as the January weakness might be transient and weather-related rather than indicative of a fundamental shift in consumer demand for vehicles. A sustained rebound would negate the short-term negative signal. If the January auto weakness proves to be more fundamental (e.g., affordability issues, saturation) rather than temporary, the sector could face continued headwinds. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Dissaving Drives Decent Demand...
|
|
Feb 10, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
"real growth in the economy continues to power on, mostly driven by pretty good household consumption" due to "households are drawing down their savings to keep their spending going." This creates a "jobless expansion favoring companies fed by an ongoing flow of dissaving." With households having "room to save less given all the wealth built up," and the general consumer "chugging along" (outside of Jan autos), companies catering to discretionary spending (excluding the noted weak auto sector) should see sustained demand. Long consumer discretionary stocks/ETFs (excluding auto manufacturers/dealers) to capitalize on robust consumer spending fueled by dissaving and wealth effects, despite weak income growth. A significant decline in asset markets could reduce household net worth, curtailing dissaving capacity. A sharper-than-expected economic slowdown or a broad increase in unemployment could also undermine consumer confidence and spending. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Dissaving Drives Decent Demand...
|
|
Feb 08, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
Bob Elliott states he has "positioned for Easy Street ahead" and simplified his thematic trade to "stocks vs US bonds." "Easy Street ahead" implies a positive outlook for risk assets, specifically US equities, relative to the more conservative US bond market. This suggests a belief in continued economic growth or a benign environment for equity performance where equities outperform fixed income. Overweight US equities and underweight US bonds in a portfolio, or consider a long equity / short bond pair trade using broad market ETFs (e.g., SPY/VOO vs. TLT/AGG). Unexpected economic downturn, significant rise in interest rates, or a flight to safety that boosts bond prices. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.08...
|
|
Feb 08, 2026
|
|
WATCH
|
Bob Elliott highlights upcoming Japanese wage data (released during Super Bowl) and a "fading currency rally after threats of intervention," noting he needs to "refresh my thinking here." Strong wage data could signal a shift in the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, potentially leading to JPY appreciation. However, the "fading currency rally" and intervention threats introduce significant uncertainty. The author's need to refresh thinking suggests a complex and potentially volatile situation. Monitor Japanese wage data, BoJ commentary, and JPY price action closely for a clearer directional signal. Avoid taking a strong directional stance until more clarity emerges, but be prepared for potential volatility in JPY (e.g., FXY) and Japanese equities (e.g., EWJ). BoJ maintains dovish stance, actual currency intervention, global risk-off sentiment driving safe-haven flows into JPY despite domestic factors. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.08...
|
|
Feb 08, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
Bob Elliott observes that "momo favorite software stocks implode and old school value companies surge." This indicates a significant and ongoing market rotation away from high-growth, high-multiple software companies towards more fundamentally sound, potentially undervalued "old school value" companies. This trend, if sustained, offers a relative value opportunity. Initiate a pair trade: Short an ETF tracking software or growth stocks (e.g., IGV, ARKK) and Long an ETF tracking value stocks (e.g., RPV, VTV). The rotation could reverse quickly, driven by a renewed appetite for growth or a broader market downturn that impacts all equities. Value stocks could become overbought. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.08...
|
|
Feb 06, 2026
|
|
WATCH
|
"Household income growth remains soft, savings rate declines are needed to maintain elevated spending, and savings rate declines require elevated wealth levels..." Consumer spending, particularly in discretionary areas, is currently sustained by dissaving and elevated wealth rather than robust income growth. This makes it potentially vulnerable if wealth levels decline or if the ability/willingness to dissave diminishes. While "Easy Street policies" are expected to support wealth, the underlying income weakness is a structural headwind. Watch Consumer Discretionary for signs of weakness, as current spending is not supported by strong organic income growth and relies on potentially unsustainable factors. A short position could be considered if wealth support falters. "Easy Street policies" continue to inflate asset prices, sustaining wealth levels and consumer confidence. A sudden pickup in hiring and income growth. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Frozen Labor Market Persists...
|
|
Feb 06, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
"Household income growth remains soft... likely to be supported by Easy Street policies ahead." "Job growth is running just above zero and seems to be sticking there." A stagnant labor market with soft income growth reduces the likelihood of the Fed tightening monetary policy and increases the probability of "Easy Street policies" (i.e., lower rates or a more accommodative stance). This dovish tilt, especially if other major central banks are perceived as relatively more hawkish or maintaining tighter policy, could lead to a weaker US Dollar. Short the US Dollar on expectations of continued accommodative monetary policy from the Fed due to a frozen labor market and soft income growth, which could diminish the dollar's yield advantage. Other central banks become even more dovish, global risk-off events drive safe-haven demand for USD, or the US economy shows unexpected strength. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Frozen Labor Market Persists...
|
|
Feb 06, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
"Household income growth remains soft... savings rate declines require elevated wealth levels, which are likely to be supported by Easy Street policies ahead." Also, "Job growth is running just above zero and seems to be sticking there." A frozen labor market with soft income growth reduces inflationary pressure from wages, providing the central bank with more room to pursue accommodative "Easy Street policies." These policies (e.g., lower interest rates, liquidity) typically support higher valuations for growth-oriented companies, particularly in the tech sector, by lowering the discount rate on future earnings. Long growth stocks/tech sector on the expectation of continued accommodative monetary policy due to a stagnant labor market and soft income growth, which supports asset valuations. A sudden pickup in inflation (non-wage related), an unexpected hawkish pivot by the central bank despite labor market data, or a significant deterioration in corporate earnings. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Frozen Labor Market Persists...
|
|
Feb 05, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
The ECB has already cut 200bps to 2%, but is expected to hold policy steady due to decent growth, tight labor markets (multi-decade lows), and subdued inflation, showing little urgency to ease further. In contrast, the US Fed is expected to aggressively argue for easier policy, making the US an "easy money outlier." The divergence between a cautious, holding ECB and a dovish Fed implies relative strength for the Euro against the US Dollar. The author explicitly states exchange rates are where divergences will be reflected. Long EUR/USD to capitalize on the relative tightening/holding stance of the ECB versus the easing stance of the Fed. The ECB could surprise with further cuts if economic conditions deteriorate rapidly, or the Fed could be less dovish than anticipated, reducing the divergence. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence...
|
|
Feb 05, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
The BoE is expected to hold policy steady due to annoyingly elevated inflation and strong recent survey data, despite weakening labor markets. This cautious stance contrasts with the Fed's anticipated aggressive push for easier policy. The relative hawkishness/holding of the BoE compared to the dovish Fed creates an opportunity for GBP appreciation against the USD. Long GBP/USD to benefit from the BoE's cautious stance and the Fed's expected dovishness. UK inflation could fall faster than expected, prompting the BoE to cut rates more aggressively, or the Fed could pivot to a less dovish stance. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence...
|
|
Feb 05, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
The RBA became the first major central bank to hike rates in 2026, forced by a "swift reacceleration" of the Aussie economy and inflation bouncing to near 4%. This explicit tightening contrasts sharply with the Fed's expected easy money policy. The RBA's active tightening cycle, driven by a hot economy, provides a strong fundamental tailwind for the Australian Dollar, especially when juxtaposed with a dovish US Fed. Long AUD/USD to capture the positive carry and capital appreciation from the RBA's tightening cycle relative to the Fed's easing. Australian economic reacceleration could prove temporary, leading the RBA to reverse course, or global risk sentiment could deteriorate, weighing on commodity-linked currencies like AUD. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence...
|
|
Feb 05, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
The BoJ "seems forced to hike in response to the FX pressures," implying a move towards tightening. This, combined with the Fed aggressively arguing for easier policy, creates a significant policy divergence. A tightening BoJ (leading to JPY strength) and an easing Fed (leading to USD weakness) creates a strong fundamental case for USD/JPY depreciation. Short USD/JPY to capitalize on the relative tightening of the BoJ and the easing of the Fed. The BoJ's hike could be a "one-and-done" or less impactful than expected, or the Fed's easing could be less aggressive, reducing the divergence. Geopolitical events could also drive safe-haven flows into USD. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence...
|
|
Feb 03, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
Bob Elliott, a previously cautious analyst, has shifted to a bullish stance on US equities. He highlights strong underlying fundamentals: resilient consumer spending, rising business dissaving driven by AI investment, robust corporate profit growth (double-digits overall, mid-20s for tech), and all-time high margins. Despite this, US stocks have traded flat since October, lagging other asset classes, and market reactions to positive economic data and strong 4Q earnings beats (expectations rising from 8% to 12%) have been unusually subdued. Short-term analyst expectations remain stable and subdued. The significant disconnect between strong, improving fundamentals and flat, underperforming price action, coupled with low short-term expectations, creates a contrarian buying opportunity. The author explicitly states the "nonconsensus view is in favor of US equities," suggesting that the market has not yet priced in the improving conditions, setting the stage for a potential re-rating and catch-up rally. The cooling of "Mag7" and strengthening of the "broader market" points to a healthier, more sustainable rally. Long a broad US equity market ETF (e.g., VTI or ITOT) to capitalize on the improving economic and corporate fundamentals, strong earnings growth, and the potential for a significant catch-up rally as the market recognizes these unpriced positives. This is a contrarian play against recent subdued price action. A sudden deterioration in economic data, unexpected hawkish shifts in monetary or fiscal policy, a significant geopolitical event, or a failure of market sentiment to shift despite strong fundamentals. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
The Case For US Stocks...
|
|
Feb 02, 2026
|
|
AVOID
|
Gold is up a ton, Copper has surged, and Brent is up a tad, indicating that the easy policy flow is already largely priced into these hard assets. They showed the highest beta in the recent "mania." The author explicitly states that "it isn’t the metals" where Easy Street momentum is modestly priced in, implying they are already fully priced for this theme. Avoid or reduce exposure to metals, as their recent run-up has likely already discounted the expected easy policy, and new momentum based on this theme is likely elsewhere. Unexpected geopolitical events, supply shocks, or higher-than-expected inflation could drive further demand for metals regardless of monetary policy pricing. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Underpricing Easy Street Policy...
|
|
Feb 02, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
The yield curve has only modestly steepened, and 2yr rates have hardly moved, despite the increasing clarity of easy policy ahead from a politically influenced Fed. Politically motivated easy policy will likely anchor short-term rates, while longer-term rates could rise due to expectations of growth and potential inflation fueled by easy money. Position for a steeper yield curve, benefiting from the divergence between suppressed short-term rates and potentially rising longer-term rates in a pro-growth, easy-money environment. Economic growth could falter, leading to a flattening or inversion, or the Fed could implement unexpected tightening at the short end. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Underpricing Easy Street Policy...
|
|
Feb 02, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
The dollar has moved only a tad and is still around last summer's levels, despite the increasing likelihood of easy policy ahead. Politically driven easy monetary policy will likely diminish the dollar's relative attractiveness, leading to its devaluation against other currencies. Short the US dollar to capitalize on its underpricing of future easy monetary policy and the associated reduction in its value. Other major central banks could pursue even easier policies, or global risk-off events could trigger safe-haven demand for the dollar. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Underpricing Easy Street Policy...
|
|
Feb 02, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
Stocks have traded flat despite strong economic stats and good earnings, and the Fed is expected to deliver easy policies to juice the economy. Metals, in contrast, have already surged. The "Easy Street" policy momentum and strong fundamentals are underpriced in equities compared to other financial assets where this is already discounted. Long broad equities to capitalize on the expected flow of easy policy and robust economic performance that is not yet fully reflected in stock prices. Economic data could unexpectedly weaken, corporate earnings could disappoint, or the Fed could surprise with a more hawkish stance than anticipated. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Underpricing Easy Street Policy...
|
|
Feb 01, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
The author explicitly notes "debasement price action" and reports gains from a "short dollar position" in their portfolio, consistent with this theme. Despite stronger US economic growth, the author's portfolio performance suggests that the "debasement" theme (implying currency weakening or inflation) is a dominant force, potentially overriding traditional dollar strength from economic outperformance. SHORT US Dollar (e.g., via UUP or specific currency pairs like EUR/USD LONG, AUD/USD LONG given RBA's likely hike) anticipating continued currency debasement. A significant global risk-off event could trigger a flight to safety into the dollar. US economic outperformance could become so strong that it forces a more hawkish Fed stance, strengthening the dollar. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.01...
|
|
Feb 01, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
US stocks are "only up a little over 1% for the month," lagging other financial assets, despite a "significant surge in hard data, and clear bottoming in soft data" indicating a pickup in US economic conditions. The author states, "the case for stocks is building." If the improving US economic conditions continue to strengthen, US equities, currently undervalued relative to this backdrop and other surging assets, are likely to experience a catch-up rally or relative outperformance. LONG US Equities (e.g., via broad market ETFs like SPY or VOO) expecting them to outperform other financial assets as the underlying economic strength is increasingly priced in. A broader market correction due to the "mania" could drag down US stocks. Economic data could unexpectedly weaken, or higher interest rates from persistent "debasement" could negatively impact valuations. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.01...
|
|
Feb 01, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
The author explicitly mentions "gains for the month in gold" and links this performance directly to "debasement price action." Gold traditionally serves as a hedge against currency debasement and inflation. If the "debasement" theme persists, gold is likely to continue performing well, offering a protective asset in an environment of asset "mania" and stronger growth. LONG Gold (e.g., via GLD or IAU) as a strategic hedge against ongoing currency debasement and potential inflationary pressures. A significant reversal in the "debasement" theme, a sharp rise in real interest rates, or a strong dollar rally could negatively impact gold prices. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.01...
|
|
Feb 01, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
The author reports "losses short financial assets (mania) and long 2yrs (stronger than expected growth)" in their portfolio. Additionally, the RBA is expected to hike rates, signaling the |
Substack - Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.01...
|
|
Jan 30, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
"Bitcoin showed similar price moves in both shocks, though notably did not see the type of recovery other asset markets had in the afternoon yesterday, suggesting the BTFD crowd is not all that active these days in the digital currency. Think this is interesting as it suggests this is more a tradfi concentrated speculation..." Bitcoin's relative underperformance (lack of recovery) suggests weaker speculative support compared to traditional assets. If the broader speculative mania fades, Bitcoin might face even greater headwinds or lag in any recovery. Short Bitcoin/Digital Currencies, or AVOID long positions, due to signs of weakening "BTFD" support and its vulnerability within a broader speculative unwinding. Renewed retail interest, institutional adoption news, or a strong rebound in broader speculative assets could lift Bitcoin. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Speculative Mania Speedbumps...
|
|
Jan 30, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
"If you are buying the dip here... you are in the same boat as everyone else betting that investors broadly will keep bidding up everything that is not nailed down to the floor. To me it looks like something to fade rather than follow." The market is driven by broad-based speculation, not fundamentals, making it highly vulnerable to shocks. Fading the dip means betting against this unsustainable speculative momentum. Short broad risky assets (e.g., through global equity or commodity ETFs) or avoid buying the dip, anticipating a potential reversal of the speculative rally due to its unsustainable nature. The "BTFD" crowd could muster another round of buying, or new positive catalysts could emerge, extending the speculative rally further than anticipated. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Speculative Mania Speedbumps...
|
|
Jan 30, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
"Interestingly the dollar traded in line with its more traditional negative correlation to risky asset markets... In both shocks the dollar rallied vs. most developed and emerging currencies." The dollar is acting as a traditional safe haven. If the speculative mania unwinds, leading to risk-off sentiment, the dollar is likely to strengthen further as investors seek safety. LONG US Dollar (e.g., via DXY or against developed/emerging market currencies), as it has demonstrated its traditional safe-haven role during recent risk-off events and is likely |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Speculative Mania Speedbumps...
|
|
Jan 30, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
"The big US open equity sale... dragged down nearly every risky asset market... To me it looks like something to fade rather than follow." US equities are a primary component of the broad speculative mania. The author's call to fade the dip applies directly to them, indicating vulnerability to further unwinding of speculation. Short US equities (e.g., S&P 500 futures or ETFs) or avoid long positions, anticipating a potential reversal of the speculative rally. Strong corporate earnings, continued retail/institutional speculative inflows, or a dovish shift in Fed expectations could drive further gains. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Speculative Mania Speedbumps...
|
|
Jan 30, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
"It’s been a wild ride in gold over the last 24 hours as well, with gold selling off sharply in sympathy to the US equity open sale. Such tight cross-asset correlations affirm broad financial speculation as the big driver here. Silver looks the same only with 2-3x beta." Gold and silver are currently acting as speculative assets, highly correlated with equities, rather than traditional safe havens or inflation hedges. If the speculative mania unwinds, they are likely to fall with other risky assets. Short Gold and Silver, or avoid long positions, as their recent movements are tied to speculative risk-on sentiment rather than fundamental drivers, making them vulnerable to a market correction. A return to "debasement" concerns, geopolitical shocks, or a shift back to traditional safe-haven buying could support prices. |
Substack - Nonconsensus
Speculative Mania Speedbumps...
|